U.S. Intel Expects Bin Laden Message Near Election
Is there time left for an October Surprise?
Senior government officials tell ABC's Pierre Thomas that the intelligence community is anticipating a message from Osama Bin Laden before -- or just after -- Tuesday's election.
At this point, there is no hard evidence that a message is coming. But a number of intelligence analysts are expecting a message because they think it is critical for al Qaeda's top leader to be seen, or heard from, if only for P.R. purposes.
Those analysts believe that if bin Laden is not heard from, he runs the risk of being considered irrelevant or impotent. Read more here: LINK
If Bin Laden is heard from before Tuesday, it would be the second post-9/11 presidential election in which he has reared his head.
In 2004, bin Laden released a message in the days just before the election.
Following his defeat, John Kerry said the tape's release effectively erased any hope he had of victory against Bush.
"It was that Osama tape -- it scared them [the American people]," Kerry told Geraldo Rivera.
During an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press" in January of 2005, Kerry elaborated.
"I believe that 9/11 was the central deciding issue in this race," said Kerry. "And the tape -- we were rising in the polls up until the last day when the tape appeared. We flat-lined the day the tape appeared and went down on Monday."
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